Zippy Livni; nearly Netanyahu

Voters in Israel give Kadima a surprise boost, but haggling over the next government must now begin

KADIMA, the centrist party led by Tzipi Livni, appears to have won the first battle of the Israeli election, over Likud, led by Binyamin Netanyahu. Projected results on Wednesday February 11th, with soldiers’ votes still to be counted, showed that Kadima would claim 28 seats in the 120-seat Knesset, just pipping Mr Netanyahu’s Likud with 27. The final result will not be known for some days.

But Mr Netanyahu may yet win the political war, as he has a strong claim to the prime ministership. A long and tortuous process of coalition haggling is now set to begin. Ms Livni, despite her party’s surprisingly strong showing, will find it hard to form a government, as the leftist block managed to pull together just 54 or 55 seats. The Labour Party, in particular, scored badly, crashing from 19 to 13 seats.

It will not be easy for Mr Netanyahu either, despite the right-leaning block, led by Likud, gathering 65-66 seats. The rightists are divided among themselves over domestic issues and Mr Netanyahu, in any case, does not want a government comprising only rightists, preferring a more moderate-looking coalition. Some of the religious parties could conceivable team up with Ms Livni. And Avidgor Lieberman of the far-right Yisrael Beitenu (Israel Our Home) who was the elections' biggest gainer, winning 15 or 16 seats, up from 11 last time, has previously teamed up with Kadima and could just possibly do so again.

Mr Netanyahu would have preferred to bring in Labour, under the present defence minister, Ehud Barak, but that party’s poor showing will mean he would be hard put to offer Mr Barak the defence portfolio again. And many key Labourites insist their party must now go into opposition, to try and rebuild its shrunken constituency.

Instead, if Mr Netanyahu is able to consolidate his rightist block, he will presumably turn to Kadima and try, by persuasion and blandishments, to convince Ms Livni to set aside her dreams of becoming prime minister and join with him instead in a broad-based centre-right government. He will cite the looming threat of Iranian nuclear ambitions, and the more immediate challenges of Hamas and Hizbullah, plus the economic slump, as reasons enough for Kadima to put aside its reservations and share in the responsibility of government.

To sweeten the package, Mr Netanyahu might offer Kadima two tempting jobs: the foreign ministry for Ms Livni and the defence ministry for her deputy, Shaul Mofaz. Mr Mofaz is a former chief of staff who served as minister of defence under Ariel Sharon in 2003-05.

Both Mr Netanyahu and Ms Livni held televised victory ceremonies on Tuesday night, replete with piped music and much hugging and handshakes. Each assured cheering loyalists that he (or she) would be the one to lead the new government. Mr Netanyahu said the victory of the “national camp” had been unequivocal. Ms Livni claimed that talk of camps was anachronistic. She argued that the important contest had been “Tzipi or Bibi”—and “the voter” had chosen her over him.

Despite the leaders’ exhortations, there seemed something hollow in the orchestrated gaiety at both headquarters. Behind their determined smiles, Kadima members knew the arithmetic was against them. The Likudniks too, off-camera, admitted that coming in second was a serious blow to Mr Netanyahu’s prestige.

The person with most to smile about was Yisrael Beitenu's Mr Lieberman, who held his victory celebration earlier in Jerusalem. There the rejoicing was authentic for, as Mr Lieberman noted, the party’s tally had shot up. That, he said, meant that “the key is in our hands”.

He said his heart was “with the right”, but the choice would be “not simple at all”. He wanted an uncompromising stand against Hamas, he said. “The first priority is to eliminate Hamas.” But Mr Lieberman, like Ms Livni and Kadima, also accepts the notion of two states, one for Israel, one for Palestine.He repeated, too, his campaign demand for a test of loyalty for all citizens of Israel, including Arab ones. He has demanded that Orthodox Jews as well as Arabs be required to do national service. He wants to break the Orthodox stranglehold over marriage laws. He also advocates radical reform of the electoral system. None of this civil agenda endears him to the religious parties that are Mr Netanyahu’s natural allies in the “national camp”. Mr Lieberman recalled that Shas, the largest Orthodox party with 11 seats, had cursed him during the campaign. “There’s a morning after…there are things we won’t forget,” he warned.

Hence the prospect of long and difficult bargaining to come. The process will begin formally once the results are published officially. President Shimon Peres must consult with all the 12 parties that have crossed the 2% threshold and made it into the new Knesset, and then decide whom to invest with the mandate to form a government. The candidate has up to six weeks to get the job done.