(1) Los Angeles Lakers vs (2) Denver Nuggets
Offense Eff.: Los Angeles (3) 109.8, Denver (7) 107.5
Defense Eff.: Los Angeles (5) 101.9, Denver (8) 103.5
Pace: Los Angeles (6) 96.9, Denver (5) 97.0
Analysis: This should be a great series to watch there is no denying that, but how great it is depends on what the Lakers bring in intensity. If they try and turn the intensity on and off like they did against the Rockets, then they will definitely lose this series, because Denver is much better than the Rockets offensively. I think the Lakers and Denver are close enough on both offense and defense that the series will be decided by three things: which stars have a big game, who wins the hustle plays, and who has a big game off the bench. So that being said here is who I see as the biggest X-factors of this series and what their impact on the series will be:
Chauncey Billups: I can't say this anymore bluntly: Derek Fisher looked REALLY bad against the Rockets in their playoff series. Sure, Billups isn't as quick as Aaron Brooks, but I still think he's gonna have his way with Fisher, so you can expect Jordan Farmar and Sasha Vujacic to get their time on Billups. Hell, I would not even be shocked to see Kobe slide over and guard Billups at some point, while Fisher guards either Dahntay Jones or J.R. Smith.
Kobe Bryant: I'm not sure Dahntay Jones, J.R. Smith, Chauncey Billups, and dare I say Carmelo Anthony will be good enough on defense to slow down Kobe. If they aren't effective, then you can expect Kobe to have a huge series. Right now this is the biggest unknown of the series to me. We should find out after the first two games if the Nuggets have what it takes defensively to beat the Lakers.
J.R. Smith: We've seen it all throughout the playoffs, bench players like Eddie House, Mickael Pietrus, Brandon Bass, and Carl Landry have come off the bench and helped their teams win because they were the X-factor in that particular game. Well, in these playoffs, Denver has something even better than that, because J.R. Smith has been the X-factor almost every game so far for the Nuggets. He's been averaging 16.3 points a game on 49.6 shooting from the floor. That kind of production off the bench is game changing and obviously a huge advantage in the playoffs.
Carmelo Anthony: I have a feeling he's going to be out for blood against the Lakers and we will see 'Melo possessed like we've never seen him before. Maybe I'm wrong and Trevor Ariza and Lamar Odom keep him in check, but I have a feeling 'Melo is going to have a monster series.
Pau Gasol: Gasol needs to be tough down low for the Lakers in this series. He's going to have his hands full with K-Mart, Nene, and the Birdman crashing the boards. He'll get some help from Lamar Odom, but Bynum can't be counted on to give them much. I think Gasol is going to have to average about 25 and 12 in this series for the Lakers to be successful.
Andrew Bynum/Lamar Odom: One of these two is going to have to play well for the Lakers to win the series. If they don't then the Lakers won't have enough scoring to keep up with the Nuggets offensively. Maybe they'll take turns playing well or maybe they'll both suck, but you can bet their play will have a major impact on the series whether good or bad.
Nene: The Lakers might be able to beat the Nuggets if just 'Melo and Billups get their points, but if Nene goes off too then the Lakers could be in big trouble. Either Gasol or Bynum will have to keep him in check. I personally expect a lot from Nene in this series.
Prediction: Nuggets in 7
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