By Bruce Ciskie
After two public retirements and countless behind-the-scenes waffles, Brett Favre is back.
The long-rumored marriage with Brad Childress and the Minnesota Vikings only adds fuel to the fire of fans who think the Vikings are a Super Bowl contender. While the evidence already existed in support of the Vikings, the perception that Favre is the key to a Super Bowl run doesn't make much sense, given some of the factors in place.
Age
Brett Favre is going to turn 40 this season. While it's not at all inconceivable that a healthy Favre would put up better numbers than he did last year with the Jets, he is battling Father Time, whose effects are often unpredictable.
Favre might put up better numbers if he can keep the trigger from breaking down, but it's also not very likely that a 40-year-old player would improve from year to year.
Not only did the right arm break down with the Jets, but Favre was hit a lot more than he had been most of his career in Green Bay. He was sacked 30 times in 2008, his most since 2000. In fact, Favre had only been sacked 36 times combined over 2006 and 2007.
If you want to respond with "Well, the Vikings are much better at protecting the passer than the Jets," it should be noted that Vikings quarterbacks Gus Frerotte and Tarvaris Jackson were sacked 43 times last year. Blame their relative immobility all you'd like, but Jackson is a far better runner than Favre at this point, and Frerotte can't be that much worse.
Favre will also battle history as he joins the Vikings. No quarterback who has passed the age of 40 has ever led an NFL team to the playoffs. Favre has made history throughout his career, but can he repel the effects of aging and lead the Vikings all the way?
Rust
Favre is no different than any other NFL veteran. As Cris Carter noted on ESPN, they all hate training camp, and none of them want to go.
Last year, Favre successfully avoided any offseason workouts, and didn't show up with the Jets until the day of their first preseason game. While he did have to take part in some training camp practices, the bulk of the work was done before he showed up.
While he got off to a hot start, Favre was never truly consistent, and then faded badly in December. In a five-game stretch that saw the Jets go 1-4 and limp to a non-playoff finish of 9-7, Favre hit just 56 percent of his passes (well below his season percentage of 65.7), averaged just 202 yards per game, and had just two touchdowns compared to nine interceptions.
The only other year in which Favre skipped his team's offseason program was 2005. Then-Packers coach Mike Sherman insisted that Favre work out at home with a personal trainer, instead of working out with the team in Green Bay. The results were disastrous. Favre led the team to a 4-12 record, their worst since 1991, and he threw a career-high 29 interceptions. 21 of those picks were thrown over Green Bay's final ten games.
After Sherman was fired, Mike McCarthy took over as coach, and the first thing he did after Favre decided to return was make it clear Favre would take part in the offseason program. Favre did that in both 2006 and 2007, working on a throwing program that he and McCarthy devised. Favre averaged 4,000 yards over those two seasons, tossed 46 touchdowns to 33 interceptions, and led the Packers to a 13-3 season in 2007.
It's a small sample size, but it doesn't seem as if Favre is always at his best when he doesn't spend time working out with his teammates in the offseason.
This time around, not only did Favre avoid the offseason program, but he also stayed away from training camp. The Vikings broke camp in Mankato on Thursday, flying from there to Indianapolis for their first preseason game. They are back at their normal facilities in the Twin Cities this week.
Does Favre make the Vikings better?
Is Favre really the best quarterback in the NFC North now? Probably not. Certainly, he wasn't as statistically sound as Aaron Rodgers was in 2008, and he also wasn't as good as Jay Cutler.
Not only did Cutler's Broncos whip the Jets on a rainy Sunday at the Meadowlands last year, but Cutler's numbers were superior in nearly every way to Favre's. He threw for more yards, more touchdowns, fewer interceptions, and had a higher rating. Same goes for Rodgers, even though his team wasn't as good as Favre's.
The Vikings were not a shoo-in to win the NFC North this year, thanks to the Packers being healthier and a year older, and the Bears acquiring a top quarterback without giving up any major pieces at other positions. Oh, and there's still a chance the Vikings might lose their best two defensive players for the first four games of the season.
Can they take the next step with a 40-year-old quarterback?
There will be a ton of pressure on this team, both on the field and off. Favre's signing only increases the heat, because now the media will crush on the team's Eden Prairie, Minn., headquarters. Favre's every move will be scrutinized. He is said to know this offense inside and out, but can he outperform two players who took part in the entire offseason program?
If he doesn't, can coach Brad Childress keep the locker room in order? While the team hasn't been great on the field since his arrival, there's no doubt that Childress has held the locker room together quite well. This is his ultimate test. What will Sage Rosenfels think about no longer having a chance to start? Is Tarvaris Jackson's already-shaky confidence going to take a deadly blow with this latest move?
Favre's signing is a very high risk, but it carries the potential for a high reward. The fall, however, could be enough to cost at least one prominent person (Childress) his job.
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