Wednesday, August 12, 2009

What should we expect from Pedro Martinez?


The Phillies have made accommodations for the three-time Cy Young winner by bumping Jamie Moyer to the bullpen. Will it work?

Somewhere, a legion of Mets fans is taking bets on how long it will take for Pedro Martinez to break down. One start? Two? The entire situation is debatable at best, but if the Phils were going to try this – an inevitability since the moment Pedro put ink to paper – now is the time to do it. I said all along the Phils can afford to experiment with one of their rotation slots. There's time to decide whether Pedro can help, with eyes on October. Actually, if you want to get technical, there's enough time for the Pedro experiment to fail and add even more pitching via waivers before the Sept. 1 deadline. That said, I’m still uncertain whether Moyer’s performance this season warranted this switch. Moyer at least kept them in ballgames most of the time. Here, they’re swapping a 79 ERA+ with a guy who had a 75 ERA+ last season and hasn't pitched in the majors since Sept. 25.




In the spirit of objectivity, setting this poll on a nice, even axis, I give Pedro a 50/50 shot of being better than Moyer. It's hard to imagine Pedro lasting a full seven innings. In 20 starts last season, going 5-6 with a 5.61 ERA, he lasted seven innings just twice. But at the same time, it's hard to picture Pedro surrendering 11 hits in five-plus innings, the way Moyer did on Sunday.

Meanwhile, I don't see Moyer's new role as anything more than a backup plan for Pedro. He's not going to be used in any difference-making way out of the pen. The Phils have two double-header dates in September and there's a good chance Moyer will reemerge for those. Even still, the Phils appear to be bending over backwards to some degree, just to accommodate Pedro.

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