by Tom Schaller
Democrats continue to trail both the New Jersey and Virginia governors races. Last week, I raised the question of whether Northern Virginia voters can save Democratic nominee Creigh Deeds. This week I ask, Can Barack Obama save Jon Corzine in New Jersey?
As Nate wrote a couple days ago, evidence of a Corzine comeback is mixed. And there is mounting evidence that Corzine knows that perhaps only with Obama's help can he stagger across the finish line ahead of Republican candidate Chris Christie--namely, the mounting of billboard signs around the state juxtaposing the two men's names.
But the real testament is found in the state registration data and recent poll results showing Corzine either tied or potentially ahead--if, that is, one projects an electorate next November that looks like the registered votership in the state as opposed to the likely votership in the state. This key distinction requires a bit of unpacking, so let's start with the party registration data in New Jersey today as compared with the recent past.
Here are the most current voter registration data from the NJ State Board of Elections. If we hold aside the very small fraction of voters who identify as third-party registrants--that is, those registering as something other than "DEM"ocratic, "REP"ublican, or "UNA"affiliated--the three-way splits for registration work out as follows: Democrats, 33.9%; Republicans, 20.4%; and Unaffiliateds, 45.7%. These are not the final data, but registrations in the final month will not alter these shares very much.
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