Low Black Turnout Key in Deeds Defeat

James Hendricks Sr., 63, a food stocker from Alexandria, Va., stands outside his voting precinct. Like many African Americans, he said he voted for gubernatorial candidate R. Creigh Deeds because he was Democrat. (AFRO Photo/Zenitha Prince)
(November 5, 2009) - ARLINGTON, VA—For many Black voters in Virginia, there seemed to be only two options in this week’s statewide elections—vote Democrat or avoid the polls. Too many chose the latter, political analysts say, and may have played a big role in a GOP sweep on Nov. 3.

“Unfortunately, I think a lot of our people just stayed home,” said Stephanie Myers, national co-chair of Black Women for Obama for Change, a political interest group that campaigned for the Democratic gubernatorial candidate, state Sen. R. Creigh Deeds, who lost 41 percent to 59 percent to his rival, Robert F. McDonnell.

That was true for Virginia’s entire electorate. This year saw the lowest turnout in a gubernatorial race in four decades, according to statistics from the Virginia State Board of Elections.

Not only did voter registration decrease, but also a mere 39 percent (1,914, 289) of the state’s near-5 million voters showed up at the polls. That was almost half the percentage of people (75 percent) who voted in last year’s presidential election.

Democrats suffered most from this voter malaise, said political analyst Larry Sabato, since the coalition that made President Barack Obama the first Democrat to win Virginia since 1964 did not wield their power on behalf of Deeds, 51, and other Democratic candidates. “There was low turnout among African Americans; there was low turnout among young voters; there was low turnout among Obama suburbanites—Democrats just didn’t show up and the Republicans did,” said Sabato, director of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics.

Last year, African Americans accounted for 20 percent of the electorate. But, in Tuesday’s race, they accounted for 15 percent. And, according to an Oct. 27 Washington Post poll, only 12 percent planned to cast their ballots—91 percent voted for Deeds—on Nov. 3.

The outcome, political experts said, was partly the product of a longtime phenomenon in Virginia, whose voters tend to offer up the governor’s mansion as a consolation prize to the party that lost the presidential election.

However, the absence of Black voters—who tend to be the most loyal voters—reflect the lack of two factors: urgency around issues and a strong identification with candidates.

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