Emerging Counter-Argument: GOP Has More Retirements Than Dems

With multiple pundits predicting the retirements of Byron Dorgan and Chris Dodd spell serious trouble for Dems — ABC News says Dems are “dropping like flies” — Steve Benen spells out the counterargument:

In the House, 14 GOP incumbents have decided not to seek re-election, while 10 Democratic incumbents have made the same announcement. Does this mean Republicans are “dropping like flies”?

In the Senate, six Republican incumbents have decided not to seek re-election, while two Democratic incumbents have made the same announcement. Is this evidence of a mass Democratic exodus?…

So, to review, Republican retirements outnumber Democratic retirements in the House, in the Senate, and among governors. The preferred Republican/media meme of the day doesn’t match up well against reality.

Duly noted. Still, let’s keep in mind that the Dorgan and Dodd announcements raise two separate questions. The first: What do the retirements say about the overall political environment and how difficult it is for Dems? The second: How do the Dorgan and Dodd retirements specifically impact Dem chances of holding their Senate super-majority?

The fact that the GOP has had more retirements doesn’t materially impact the second question. The bottom line is that the Dorgan retirement is very bad news for Dems. Yes, it may well be offset by Dodd’s retirement, which gives Dems a much better chance of holding the Connecticut seat. But nonetheless, the North Dakota seat is now all but certain to flip Republican, and before, it wasn’t.

The point is that the debate over the number of retirements and over the Dem chances of holding the super-majority are two separate conversations. That said, when it comes to assessing just how bad the environment has become for Dems and whether Dems are “dropping like flies,” obviously the number of GOP retirements deserves to be part of the media discussion.

Also, on a separate note, it’s unclear to me how reliable an indicator of the political environment retirements are in the first place, particularly with nearly a year until Election Day. Genuinely unsure on that point. Anyone have a better sense?