Pennsylvania Democratic Party chair TJ Rooney whined yesterday that a victory by Joe Sestak over Arlen Specter in the Democratic primary would be “cataclysmic.” Why a longtime Republican with high negatives and a strong incumbency factor in an anti-incumbent year should be seen as the savior of the Democratic Party is unclear. But the ground is shifting below TJ Rooney’s feet:
Snarlen and Joe Sestak are in a statistical dead heat in this morning’s Morning Call/Muhlenberg College tracking poll.
The two Democrats are at 43 percent each in the poll of 410 likely primary voters, with 13 percent undecided. Just yesterday, Specter held a 45-40 percent lead, with 14 percent undecided.
Yesterday, Sestak began airing an advertisement linking Specter to former Prez George Bush and, worse for Dems, Sarah Palin. Looks like there was some penetration there.
That brutal ad probably didn’t even factor into this poll – so things will probably get worse for Specter. I think making Sestak the favorite now is probably the right move.
And a word to TJ Rooney – your potential nominee for Senate just went up against a 30-year incumbent, with the entire political establishment against him, with nobody giving him a chance, outspent, out-endorsed, with the President of the United States cutting ads for his opponent; and he is about to shock the world. I think he may be strong enough to carry a victory in November. Surely it’s possible?
As Chris Bowers notes, this is part of a pretty good polling cycle for Democrats. Bill Halter looks like he may force a runoff against Blanche Lincoln now; Arizona shows a Democrat suddenly in the lead for Governor, Ned Lamont’s upin Connecticut, and progressive Democrat Roxanne Conlin is within single digits of Chuck Grassley (his vote against destroying consumer protections in Wall Street reform yesterday may not have been an accident).
What appears to be happening is that Democrats want more reliable Democrats in office, and nobody wants incumbents to stay in place. Obviously incumbents still have lots of advantages, but this is a funny year.
UPDATE: Ed Rendell’s on Hardball right now, and he wouldn’t go as far as TJ Rooney, saying that Sestak or Specter could win a general election, though Specter is a “stronger candidate.” Rendell also praised Sestak’s tough ad as coming from “my ad agency,” though he obviously supports Specter – he just cut a robocall for him, and he said current Philadelphia mayor Michael Nutter, Vice President Biden and President Obama would also make their support known soon.
By: David Dayen
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