Obama Starting To Look Like Lyndon Johnson

by Glenn Church in Barack Obama   

Barack Obama is starting to look like Lyndon Johnson.
Johnson conducted major domestic legislation on civil rights, poverty, Medicare and other social issues while conducting an unpopular war in Vietnam.

Despite his domestic triumphs and widespread support among non-Southerners in his own Democratic Party, he was forced to withdraw in his bid for a new Presidential term because of the increasing likelihood that he could not get his own party’s nomination.

Fast forward forty years later and another Democratic President is in office. Obama, too, has accomplished much on domestic legislation and has other sweeping proposals that most Democrats support.
He also has an increasingly unpopular war on his hands. It looks like Afghanistan is becoming Obama’s Vietnam.
I hear from Democrats their frustration with Obama’s war strategy. Many think this is George Bush warmed over. They appear shocked, surprised, even betrayed.
They should not be. This is what Obama said he would do during the campaign, but it appears that Democrats were not listening.

In July 2008, Obama said that his goals involved “ending the war in Iraq responsibly; finishing the fight against al Qaeda and the Taliban.”

Democrats only heard the part about Iraq.

Adding 30,000 soldiers to fight the Taliban this year was not contrary to his promise, but he is increasingly being castigated for it.

A year ago, 32 Democrats dissented on war funding for Afghanistan. This year, 102 Democrats abandoned Obama’s strategy. That means Obama had to continue war funding with Republican votes.
Interestingly, 12 Republicans also voted against continued funding. This is a sign that a war-weary public is starting to influence the Republican Party as well. It is hard to imagine that the continued stalemate in Afghanistan can continue to have support from both parties for another three to four years.

Nevertheless, as much as the Republicans would like to embarrass Obama, they will not deny funding for the Afghan War anytime soon. With the likelihood that they will increase their numbers in Congress, Obama will probably find support for the Afghan War next year from Republicans, not his own party.
If Democratic opposition has tripled in the House in a year (roughly 60% support the President now), then it is a good bet that a majority will disapprove of funding the war next year.

By next year, Obama will be seeking Democratic support for his domestic agenda but Republican support for the essential core of his foreign policy — the Afghan War.
This is a scenario that looks increasingly like 1968.

By the way that the war is going now, it is going to be difficult for Obama to significantly decrease the number of soldiers in Afghanistan by 2012.

By next year, expect a prominent anti-war Democrat to make sounds about running for President.
Rep. Dennis Kucinich is an obvious choice, but he has been on the merry-go-round as a Presidential candidate so many times that he is not likely to get the needed critical support. Another House Democrat may appear as a challenger in the 2012 Democratic primaries to Obama. A more likely scenario might be a senator.
No one is making sounds now, but a strong liberal, anti-war senator like New York’s Charles Shumer, New Mexico’s Jeff Bingaman, Vermont’s Patrick Leahy or Rhode Island’s Jack Reed could turn what should be a simple victory tour into a gut-wrenching disembowelment of the Democratic Party.

Far-fetched? Do not be so sure of that. Since the time of FDR, only one incumbent Democratic President has survived renomination to become re-elected. That was Bill Clinton.
Ted Kennedy nearly grabbed the Democratic nomination from Jimmy Carter in 1980. That challenge contributed to Carter’s defeat in November to Ronald Reagan.

In 1968, Lyndon Johnson withdrew after Minnesota Senator Eugene McCarthy ran a surprisingly strong race in New Hampshire’s primary against Johnson.

In1952, Harry Truman went down to defeat against Tennessee Senator Estes Kefauver in the New Hampshire primary.

Once again, the political stars are aligning for the Democrats to feed on their own. This time it is the Obama presidency on the plate.