The Possibility of a GOP Senate

Posted by Mark Noonan

You might recall me saying last year that there was zero chance for the Republican party to win a Senate majority in 2010. It just wasn’t in the cards. There weren’t enough competitive Democrat seats, while there were several competitive GOP seats which opened up opportunities for Democrats to counter GOP victories over Democrats.




Now? Now, it has shifted from impossible, to possible – from the Wall Street Journal:



…Republicans would have to win virtually every competitive race to retake the Senate, without losing any seats of their own—clearly an uphill climb. The trouble for Democrats is that many trends are against them. Surveys show that Republicans are more motivated than Democrats to go to the polls, and that voters are looking for new leadership in Congress.



“I think there is definitely a chance” of losing the Senate, said Democratic strategist Gary Nordlinger, a Washington-based media consultant. “I wouldn’t call it a probability, but there is certainly a chance.”



“Republicans still have to [win] all the competitive races in order to get to a majority, but at least there are enough seats on the table to pull it off,” said Nathan Gonzales, political editor of the non-partisan Rothenberg Political Report…



It would be, without a doubt, very difficult for Republicans to win the ten seats necessary for a majority (9 wouldn’t do it, as that would put the Senate at 50/50 with VP Biden breaking the tie). But the thing is, there are a total of 11 Democrat seats the GOP has a reasonable prospect of winning – there are two GOP seats which are rated as a bit vulnerable, but not nearly as vulnerable as most of the Democrats’ are. It would take rolling sixes several times in a row, but it could happen.



The really bad news for the Democrats: the GOP is likely to really clean up in 2012 and 2014 as all those first term Senate Democrats from 2006 and 2008 have their first re-election bids, often in GOP-leaning States. A bit of hard work, a bit of luck, and we could wind up with the power to force through whatever reforms we desire.