As the nation’s attention is focused on Christine O’Donnell’s upset of Mike Castle in Delaware, and her chances of winning in November, it’s worth noting that another insurgent candidate in Nevada seems to be gaining momentum.
At least according to one poll, anyway:
Most striking is how closely fought the Nevada Senate race remains. The poll in that race, which pits the most powerful Democrat in the Senate against former state assembly member Angle — shows that Angle is capturing 42% of likely voters polled to Reid’s 41%, a statistical dead heat. Angle’s standing against Reid comes despite the fact that there’s an official Tea Party candidate on the ballot who might be expected to siphon away votes from her. But Scott Ashjian is backed by only 5% of those polled.
There is a striking gender difference among those polled in Nevada. Women go for Reid by a 51-33 margin, while men back Angle, 49-32. With both parties’ bases mobilized and overwhelmingly backing their nominee, the critical ground will be fought over independent swing voters. Angle wins here, collecting 40% compared to Reid’s 33%. Among self-described moderates, Reid holds sway, 57-23, while Angle has a big margin among conservatives, 72-13. Reid wins among those who attended college (44-40) as well as those making less than $50,000 a year (45-31). But Angle prevails among those with no college experience (44-37). They’re evenly divided among voters making more than $50,000.Ed Morrissey notes a significant split in the polling:
Registered voters: Reid 42, Angle 34
Likely voters: Angle 42, Reid 41
There are two take-aways from those numbers, both positive for Angle.
First, it seems as though Angle supporters are much more motivated to turn out at the polls to vote. Second, the fact that Harry Reid is polling at just 40% despite being his party’s Senate Majority Leader, involved in politics for 40 years in Nevada and campaigning against a relatively unknown and inexperienced candidate means he’s in serious trouble.
We were told by the media, the liberals and the establishment Republicans that Angle was a weak candidate who couldn’t be Reid. Clearly, she can win. She’s no shoo-in, but she’s giving him a run for his money
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