As with all things regarding the opaque Kim Jong-il regime, observers are reduced to speculation about what is going to take place over the next few days. The consensus among Pyongyang watchers is that the main business of the conference will be to promote one of Kim's children to a senior leadership position, marking him as Kim's successor.
The favorite candidate is Kim Jong-un, Kim Jong-il's youngest son. The elder Kim reportedly believes that Jong-un's older brother, Kim Jong-chul, is to effiminate to lead. Half-brother Kim Jong-nam, the oldest of Kim Jong-il's sons, apparently took himself out of consideration for the top job when he was caught trying to sneak into Japan under an assumed name to go to Disneyland.
Former Japanese defense minster Yuriko Koike speculates that the throne may pass to Kim Jong-il's sister, rather than to any of his sons:
"Kim Kyung-hee, Kim Jong-il's sister and the wife of the second-ranking figure in North Korea's hierarchy, Jang Song-taek, may balk at power slipping through her fingers," she said. "Indeed, in a country where trust rarely exists, Kim Kyung-hee is the only blood relation whom Kim Jong-il has ever fully trusted."I still believe Kim Sol-song, Kim Jong-il's daughter and the product of his only official marriage, has an outside shot. She is reportedly (that word again) smarter and better versed in Pyongyang's politics than any of her half-brothers. She is trained in economics (although educated in economics in North Korea, hardly a harbinger of success in the field). She also speaks several languages and has served as a personally advisor to her father and in various important positions in his administration.
The delay in the party conference, originally scheduled to take place in early September, may have been delayed due to in-fighting among the Kim clan over the succession issue, although heavy flooding may have been the main factor.
By Andy Jackson
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