Over the weekend, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao
offered a glimpse into China's apprehension toward the popular
uprisings in the Arab world when he rejected comparisons between China
and the Middle East.
"We have followed closely the turbulence in some north African and Middle Eastern countries," said Wen, according to the Associated Press. "We believe it is not right to draw an analogy between China and those countries."
His remarks coincided with two worthy op-eds in the U.S. media questioning the likelihood that unrest may spread to China. "The communist government in Beijing is clearly worried," wrote Francis Fukuyama in the Wall Street Journal, while Guobin Yang asserted in the New York Times that the government's posture has prompted protesters to "express modest and concrete goals rather than demand total change."
Adam Segal, an expert at the Council on Foreign Relations and regular contributor to the council's Asia Unbound blog, tells Trend Lines that "the chances of an overthrow of the Chinese regime are very slim in the near term."
Segal cited a number of reasons, including the significantly more aggressive response to public demonstrations by Chinese authorities, whose monitoring and control over social media are also more sophisticated than what had been in place in Tunisia and Egypt.
More importantly, however, he pointed to the uniquely far-reaching nature of the Chinese state.
"We're talking about a Communist Party that has 60 million to 70 million members now," Segal said. "The state itself extends so far down to the village level and into the countryside, it's a much broader apparatus than you had in Tunisia or in Egypt."
Segal added that economic growth certainly also makes a difference in China, as widespread benefits spread to the middle class.
"We have followed closely the turbulence in some north African and Middle Eastern countries," said Wen, according to the Associated Press. "We believe it is not right to draw an analogy between China and those countries."
His remarks coincided with two worthy op-eds in the U.S. media questioning the likelihood that unrest may spread to China. "The communist government in Beijing is clearly worried," wrote Francis Fukuyama in the Wall Street Journal, while Guobin Yang asserted in the New York Times that the government's posture has prompted protesters to "express modest and concrete goals rather than demand total change."
Adam Segal, an expert at the Council on Foreign Relations and regular contributor to the council's Asia Unbound blog, tells Trend Lines that "the chances of an overthrow of the Chinese regime are very slim in the near term."
Segal cited a number of reasons, including the significantly more aggressive response to public demonstrations by Chinese authorities, whose monitoring and control over social media are also more sophisticated than what had been in place in Tunisia and Egypt.
More importantly, however, he pointed to the uniquely far-reaching nature of the Chinese state.
"We're talking about a Communist Party that has 60 million to 70 million members now," Segal said. "The state itself extends so far down to the village level and into the countryside, it's a much broader apparatus than you had in Tunisia or in Egypt."
Segal added that economic growth certainly also makes a difference in China, as widespread benefits spread to the middle class.
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