Political Parties Are Not the Only Winners and Losers in Redistricting

By Richard A. Lee

Next month, after we learn what New Jersey’s 40 Legislative districts will look like when the State Apportionment Commission completes its work, we also will get a sense of which political party fares better under the new map.

But the biggest winners in the redistricting process – at both the Legislative and Congressional levels – sometimes are not the parties themselves, but individual lawmakers.

That’s what resulted from the redistricting that took place after the 1990 Census – and it could happen again this time around. The scenarios are somewhat similar.

On the federal level, New Jersey once again is losing a Congressional seat. On the state level, as was the case after the 1990 Census, the Legislature is controlled by the Democratic Party. Unlike today, however, in 1990 the state had a Democratic Governor, Jim Florio. But by the time redistricting took place, there was a strong anti-Democrat sentiment throughout the state due to tax increases enacted early in Florio’s term.

So what happened in the redistricting process two decades ago?

Frank Pallone appeared to be the odd man out as the state squeezed 14 Congressional districts into thirteen. He had the least seniority of any member of New Jersey’s Congressional delegation. He also was somewhat of a maverick whose actions did not always sit well with his Democratic colleagues, who supported a map that placed Pallone in the same district as another Democrat – Bernie Dwyer, a popular and longtime Congressman from Middlesex County.

Bill Dowd, who was Monmouth County Republican Chairman at the time, summed up the situation in his testimony before the Legislative Apportionment Commission. According to The New York Times, Dowd told the panel: “I'd like to see Mr. Pallone defeated. But apparently I don't want to see him defeated as much as the Democrats do.”

Although Dwyer ultimately decided to retire rather than seek re-election, Pallone faced strong opposition in the Democratic primary from State Senator Bob Smith, who at the time was Middlesex County Democratic Chairman.

But Pallone weathered the storm, won the primary and the general election, and has been re-elected 10 more times. Today, he is the senior member of New Jersey’s Congressional delegation. A year ago, Politico reported that he had the largest war chest of any member of the House – $3.9 million.

Last year, Pallone fended off a Tea Party challenger in a difficult year for Democrats. He is expected to someday be a candidate for U.S. Senate. In fact, he turned down an offer to be the Democratic Party’s Senate candidate in 2002 when Senator Robert Torricelli dropped out of the race.

That same redistricting process in the early 1990s also has had long-term consequences for New Jersey because of what happened with Frank Guarini, who was a seven-term Congressman from Hudson County.

During Guarini’s time in Congress, the demographics of his district – and the state as a whole – had changed. The Hispanic population had grown larger and more influential. Before the new lines were drawn, then-State Senator Bob Menendez had hinted he might challenge Guarini. The decision on whether to run became easier once the new map was unveiled. The new district stretched from Hudson County into Newark and Elizabeth and then down the Arthur Kill to Perth Amboy, making it about 43 percent Hispanic.

Like Dwyer, Guarini also opted to retire.

Menendez won the seat easily, and was re-elected six times. In Congress, he became Chairman of the House Democratic Caucus, making him the third -highest ranking Democrat in the House.

He moved up to the Senate in 2005, when he was appointed to fill the seat vacated by Jon Corzine, who had just been elected Governor. Menendez was elected to the Senate in 2006 by a comfortable margin despite a very aggressive campaign that was waged by Tom Kean Jr. and the Republican Party.

As in the House, Menendez has emerged as a leader in the Senate, heading the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.

On the state level, after the 1990 Census, Democrats had majorities in both Houses and a member of their party sitting in the Governor’s Office. Nevertheless, the Legislative map that won approval was more favorable to the Republican Party.

Among the problems the map posed for Democrats was the 19th Legislative District in Middlesex County. Under the new map, Carteret became part of the district, leaving three Democrats to fight over two Assembly seats.

Two of those Democrats – Tom Deverin and George Otlowksi -- were longtime legislators. Just as with Congress, the odd man out was the lawmaker with the least seniority. And that person was a first-term Assemblyman named Jim McGreevey.

Like Frank Pallone, McGreevey also had angered some members of his own party. But unlike Pallone, he chose not to get involved in a contested primary. Instead, he saw a better opportunity for his political future back home in Woodbridge, where the Mayor’s Office was up for election and the incumbent Mayor was under indictment.

McGreevey was one of four candidates who ran for Woodbridge Mayor in 1991. He received just 34 percent of the vote, but that was enough for him to win and launch a successful career as a mayor.

Using the Mayor’s Office as a springboard, McGreevey returned to the Legislature in 1994 as a State Senator, built a statewide reputation and won the Democratic Party’s nomination for Governor in 1997. He came extremely close to upsetting Christine Todd Whitman in the 1997 Governor’s race. Four years later, he defeated Brett Schundler and became the state’s youngest governor.

Will the current redistricting processes produce similar results to what transpired after the 1990 Census?

We are unlikely to know the answer for several years. Frank Pallone did not build his huge war chest overnight. Bob Menendez was tagged as a rising young star when he first ran for Congress, but it took time before we saw where his career was heading. As for Jim McGreevey: It was 10 years before he got to the Governor’s Office.

What we do know is that redistricting is a very complex process – and it’s a process that is far from perfect.

Perhaps someday we will be able to just feed all of the necessary demographic data into a computer and receive perfectly apportioned districts.

After all, in today’s world, computers can do just about everything -- except maybe beat Rush Holt at Jeopardy.

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Richard A. Lee is Communications Director of the Hall Institute. A former State House reporter and Deputy Communications Director for the Governor, he also teaches courses in media, politics and government at Rutgers University, where he is completing work on a Ph.D. in media studies. Read more of Rich’s columns at richleeonline and follow him on Twitter.

Movie Review: “Battle: Los Angeles”

 by Clay Cane 

Summary:  Back in 1942 in Los Angeles, air-raid sirens and anti-aircraft artillery were fired due to what some believed was a reaction to an alien attack.  However, the government said it was a false alarm prompted by a weather balloon (artillery just for a weather balloon?!). This standard “when aliens attack” flick is loosely based on those incidents.

Review: “The world is at war” is one of the first lines from Battle: Los Angeles. You know the deal. Killer aliens, the ultimate in American patriotism, and the typical characters: There’s the retiring sergeant, the sacrificial rookie, frantic children, random civilians turned heroes and one female who can “ride with the boys.” It’s guns, explosions, screams and a replica of any war film in the past 40 years, but with an alien twist. There isn’t an original frame in Battle: Los Angeles, but it’s surprisingly a solid film.

The sci-fi flick is directed by South African native Jonathan Liebesman. The shaky script and cheese-ball dialogue is embarrassingly painful, but once the actors let the explosions do the talking, the movie does its job for its genre. Battle: Los Angeles will deservingly receive its fair share of mixed reviews, but props are due to Liesbesman for the film’s excellent execution of tension and aggressive action.

The film also features Ne-Yo in his first film since Stomp the Yard. The R&B crooner has a small role as Kevin Harris, a glasses-wearing corporal who has little backstory and is only relevant because of Ne-Yo. Nonetheless, the Grammy winner made the smart move. Unlike many singers who have rarely acted, he got his feet wet in a small role. The character didn’t require much power, but Ne-Yo was a natural. He possibly has a potential career in Hollywood and can deliver a line without sounding like a robot—the curse of many rappers and singers turned actors.

Another plus for Battle: Los Angeles is the extremely diverse cast. There are newcomers like Ramón Rodríguez and Adetokumboh M’Cormack. Plus, BET fave Cory Hardrict and action diva Michelle Rodriguez.

There is nothing incredibly memorable about Battle: Los Angeles, but it’s a fun junk-food flick. A strong plot line, unsuspecting twists, and award-worthy dialogue should not be expected. Lower your standards and enjoy the ride.

Battle: Los Angeles is in theaters today.

Saudia Arabia quashes protests

A massive show of force snuffed out a Facebook-based effort to stage unprecedented pro-democracy protests in the capital of Saudi Arabia on Friday but political unrest and sectarian tensions roiled neighboring Yemen and Bahrain.

An anti-government protestor reacts during a demonstration demanding the resignation of Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh, in Sanaa, Yemen, Friday, March 11, 2011. 

Yemen’s largest demonstrations in a month were met by police gunfire that left at least six protesters injured and seemed all but certain to fuel more anger against the U.S.-allied but deeply unpopular president.

In Bahrain, a conflict deepened between the island kingdom’s Shiite majority and its Sunni Muslim royal family, whose security forces and pro-government mobs attacked demonstrators with tear gas, rocks and swords in the home of the U.S. Navy’s 5th Fleet. Defense Secretary Robert Gates visited the kingdom to reassure its rulers that the U.S. remains committed to their partnership, officials said.

With uprisings threatening allies on its eastern and southern flanks, the Sunni Saudi monarchy appeared to be taking no chances in its effort to keep the popular push for democracy in the Arab world from spreading to the world’s largest crude oil exporter.

In the heavily Shiite eastern Saudi city of Qatif, a short drive from Bahrain, armored personnel carriers and dozens of officers in riot gear surrounded several hundred demonstrators shouting calls for reforms and equality between the sects. Police opened fire in the city to disperse a protest late Thursday in an incident that left three protesters and one officer wounded, but there was no repeat of that violence.

Saudi Shiite protesters chant slogans during a demonstration in Qatif, Saudi Arabia, Friday, March 11, 2011. Several hundred people protested in heavily Shiite eastern Saudi Arabia Friday but hundreds of police prevented protests in the capital calling for democratic reforms inspired by the wave of unrest sweeping the Arab world.

Yemen’s president of 32 years appeared to be one of the leaders most threatened by the regional unrest inspired by pro-democracy revolts in Egypt and Tunisia.

Hundreds of thousands of protesters gathered in Yemen’s four largest provinces, ripping down and burning Saleh’s portraits in Sheikh Othman, the most populated district in the southern port city of Aden, witnesses said.
Security forces hurled tear gas into crowds close to a stadium and then opened fire, using machine guns mounted on vehicles, said eyewitness Sind Abdullah, 25.

Thousands of women participated in demonstrations in the conservative capital, Sanaa — a startling move in a deeply tribal society where women are expected to stay out of sight.

Demonstrators demanded jobs and greater political freedom and decried Saleh’s proposal Thursday that the government create a new constitution guaranteeing the independence of parliament and the judiciary, calling it too little and too late.

The autocratic leader is also an ally in the Obama adminstration’s push to eliminate the local branch of al-Qaida, which has attempted to attack the United States. He has also worked closely with the Saudis to quash his own Shiite uprising in the north.
In the Saudi capital, security forces who took up positions on corners and intersections as at least one helicopter buzzed overhead. Police blocked roads and set up random checkpoints, searching residents and vehicles around a central mosque as large numbers of people gathered for Friday prayers.
Government minders escorted journalists around the city, where they were shown a man, who gave his name as Khaled al-Juhni, standing outside a government building, shouting calls for more freedoms.
Police and journalists watched as the man criticized the regime as a “police state” and “a big prison” before he got in his car and left.
No other protests had showed up in the capital and the police presence significantly decreased.
A government official said security measures around state-run oil giant Saudi Aramco and its oil facilities in the east were beefed up protectively in case of any violence. The company is based in the Dhahran district on the kingdom’s eastern coast.
Investors are sensitive to any sign of upheaval in Saudi Arabia because the OPEC leader has been using its spare capacity to make up for output lost amid the violent uprising against Libya’s government. When news broke that Saudi Arabian police fired shots to break up the protest Thursday, prices soared $3 in just 12 minutes.
Shiites make up 10 percent of the kingdom’s 23 million citizens and have long complained of discrimination, saying they are barred from key positions in the military and government and are not given an equal share of the country’s wealth.
Last month, the ultraconservative Saudi government announced an unprecedented economic package worth an estimated $36 billion that will give Saudis interest-free home loans, unemployment assistance and debt forgiveness.
At the same time, it reiterated that demonstrations are forbidden in the kingdom.
So far the demonstrations have been small, concentrated in the east among Shiites demanding the release of detainees. But activists set up Facebook groups calling for protests in Riyadh and one group garnered more than 30,000 supporters of its demands for free elections. AP

The Biggest Full Moon in Two Decades : 19th March 2011

We on Earth are about to witness the biggest full moon in almost two decades when our natural satellite reaches its closest point to Earth next weekend on Saturday, the 19th of March 2010.

On 19 March, the full moon will appear unusually large in the night sky as it reaches a point in its cycle known as 'lunar perigee'.

Stargazers will be treated to a spectacular view when the moon approaches Earth at a distance of 221,567 miles in its elliptical orbit - the closest it will have passed to our planet since 1992.

The full moon could appear up to 14% bigger and 30% brighter in the sky, especially when it rises on the eastern horizon at sunset or is provided with the right atmospheric conditions.

This phenomenon has reportedly heightened concerns about 'supermoons' being linked to extreme weather events - such as earthquakes, volcanoes and tsunamis. The last time the moon passed close to the Earth was on 10 January 2005, around the time of the Indonesian earthquake that measured 9.0 on the Richter scale.

Hurricane Katrina in 2005 was also associated with an unusually large full moon.

Previous supermoons occurred in 1955, 1974 and 1992 - each of these years experienced extreme weather events.

However, an expert speaking to Yahoo! News today believes that a larger moon causing weather chaos is a popular misconception.

Dr Tim O'Brien, a researcher at the Jodrell Bank Centre for Astrophysics at the University of Manchester, said: "The dangers are really overplayed. You do get a bit higher than average tides than usual along coastlines as a result of the moon's gravitational pull, but nothing so significant that will cause a serious climatic disaster or anything for people to worry about."

But according to Dr Victor Gostin, a Planetary and Environmental Geoscientist at Adelaide University, there may be a link between large-scale earthquakes in places around the equator and new and full moon situations.

He said: "This is because the Earth-tides (analogous to ocean tides) may be the final trigger that sets off the earthquake."


Japan is in the news ... A powerful tsunami spawned by the largest earthquake in Japan's recorded history slammed the eastern coast today !

Far Left: ‘Climate Change’ Caused Earthquake In Japan

We all knew it would happen. But I’m surprised it happened this fast. The far left is already blaming the earthquake in Japan on “Climate Change.” They could at least wait until the aftershocks stop before making stuff up.
From Grist:

So far, today’s tsunami has mainly affected Japan — there are reports of up to 300 dead in the coastal city of Sendai — but future tsunamis could strike the U.S. and virtually any other coastal area of the world with equal or greater force, say scientists. In a little-heeded warning issued at a 2009 conference on the subject, experts outlined a range of mechanisms by which climate change could already be causing more earthquakes, tsunamis, and volcanic activity.
“When the ice is lost, the earth’s crust bounces back up again and that triggers earthquakes, which trigger submarine landslides, which cause tsunamis,” Bill McGuire, professor at University College London, told Reuters.

Melting ice masses change the pressures on the underlying earth, which can lead to earthquakes and tsunamis, but that’s just the beginning. Rising seas also change the balance of mass across earth’s surface, putting new strain on old earthquake faults, and may have been partly to blame for the devastating 2004 tsunami that struck Southeast Asia, according to experts from the China Meteorological Administration.

Oh geez, here we go again.

Read more: http://www.thehotjoints.com/2011/03/11/far-left-climate-change-caused-earthquake-in-japan/#ixzz1GKCiBp3c

How giving Charles Barkley a platform on the CBS-Turner NCAA tournament coverage could come back to haunt 'em

By Tom Hoffarth 

The Associated Press

Charles Barkley's analysis after a first-round blowout in the NCAA tournament: "Duke graduates their players, but that team they did has not graduated a player in like seven years."
Never one for understatement, Barkley was in fact exaggerating Tuesday when he imagined that scene. But not by much. The brash Hall of Famer plans to lobby for better graduation rates in his new job as a college basketball commentator.

CBS and Turner Sports' new 14-year, $10.8 billion deal to televise the NCAA tournament adds announcers from the NBA broadcasts on TNT to March Madness. And Barkley is mad about how few Division I players, especially African-American men, earn degrees.

"They got $10.8 billion. That's a lot of freakin' money," Barkley told The Associated Press. "The players aren't getting any of it, so clearly somebody is making money. I'm not opposed to people making money, but we do have an obligation, to, like, 'OK, you know what? We're making a (ton) of money. Let's at least make sure these kids get educated.'"

When Turner Sports chief David Levy asked him about joining the college studio show, Barkley said he wouldn't take part if he couldn't get academic. He met with NCAA President Mark Emmert in Atlanta in January, which convinced him players shouldn't be paid because it wasn't fair to give athletes in some sports money but not others.

"He understands what this is all about," NCAA vice president Greg Shaheen said. "His comments are representative of the many issues in the environment of basketball we're all trying to address. ... It's a great opportunity for him to comment on those topics."

Barkley does believe, unlike the NCAA, that college players should be able to get loans from agents. He was surprised to learn that black athletes have higher graduation rates than black students as a whole, which left him even more dismayed.

According to the latest NCAA statistics, the graduation success rate for black Division I men's basketball players was 58 percent. Barkley would like to see it be 70 percent -- he figures there are three "boneheads" for every 10 kids.

"We can't expect these kids to go out and be good fathers and take care of their families if they're uneducated," Barkley said. "There is personal responsibility. But you've got to help these kids because, first of all, all these kids think they're going to play on the next level."

He's thought about writing a book tracking down all the guys he played with in high school, college and the pros. When Barkley reached the NBA, he realized just how few of his contemporaries made it. He heard stories that some were homeless.

Barkley thinks it'd be a fascinating book, but worries it may seem as though he's taking advantage of them. For now, he can send the message of why earning a degree is so vital.

"I've been on the sidelines, but now I'm actually in the fight," Barkley said. "I see how it works now. You can't make a difference unless you talk about it. Now I'm going to keep banging the drums."

TNT NBA colleague Kenny Smith, who will join Barkley on the NCAA broadcasts, says he holds college coaches to an even higher standard than their NBA brethren because they're responsible for players' education and discipline. Barkley is thrilled when he sees a coach suspend a player, because he's seen how a sense of entitlement is as dangerous to athletes as the lack of a diploma.

Barkley is still figuring out how and when to best get his message out on the air. He doesn't want to be a "downer" and intends to embrace the happier aspects of his new job.

"I've got to wait for the appropriate time," he said. "I can't start out March Madness on Thursday saying, 'These graduation rates suck.' That wouldn't be appropriate."

Would it be appropriate to call out individual schools for low graduation rates?
"I don't ever want to embarrass anybody, but some of these people deserve to be embarrassed," Barkley said. "That's a good question. I don't know the answer to it yet."

LeBron James, Heat Are 1-0

Chris Bosh said that he was out of his comfort zone and that he needed his Miami Heat teammates to feed him the ball down low so that he could be himself. And if the Heat did that – and ONLY that – they would start winning again. Well guess what friends… Bosh was right, he got the ball, the Heat beat the Los Angeles Lakers and America doesn’t get to be happy anymore because the losing streak is over.

The Heat defeated the Lakers 94-88 in what was truly a back-and-forth display of my television’s channels. But Bosh stepped up and contributed 24 points after demanding the ball more and boy did he take charge. On one play, Heat center Erick Dampier fought off three Lakers for a loose ball while Bosh, like a born leader, watched from underneath the basket before scoring the uncontested dunk and screaming to the world that he had arrived.

As for LeBron James – the King, as he insists people call him – the pressure is off. With the Lakers out of the way, LeBron and the Heat can concentrate on winning the next 17 games and matching the record of the 2009-10 Cleveland Cavaliers and proving to the world once and for all that having two superstars and Bosh is better than having a silly team.

And in case you missed it, I’ve included Wade and LeBron doing their thing like it indeed is no thang, as I’ve heard people say…

State Department’s Crowley Condemns Treatment of Bradley Manning: “Counterproductive and Stupid”

By: emptywheel Friday March 11, 2011 6:55 am

Crowley (via wikipedia)

When PJ Crowley tweeted this the other day:

These are not #Twitter or #Wikileaks revolutions. They belong to the people, but technology can expand and accelerate the pace of change.

I was going to tweet back that he had to say that, given the necessity of maintaining the Administration party line on WikiLeaks. I’ve pointed out the difficult position our government’s crackdown on WikiLeaks has put Crowley in before, after all.
But sometimes the truth has a way of slipping out:

I just heard an extraordinary remark from State Department spokesman P.J. Crowley. He was speaking to a small audience at MIT on “the benefits of new media as it relates to foreign policy”, an event organised by the Center for Future Civic Media.

Around twenty of us were sitting around the table listening to his views on social media, the impact of the Twittersphere, the Arab uprisings, and so on, in a vast space-age conference room overlooking the Charles River and the Boston skyline. And then, inevitably, one young man said he wanted to address “the elephant in the room”. What did Crowley think, he asked, about Wikileaks? About the United States, in his words, “torturing a prisoner in a military brig”? Crowley didn’t stop to think. What’s being done to Bradley Manning by my colleagues at the Department of Defense “is ridiculous and counterproductive and stupid.”

Wow. Crowley has spent the last several months condemning the abuse of Middle Eastern dictators against their citizens. And now, in a room of twenty people, Crowley has condemned the abuse our own country commits.

I’ll be curious to see whether Crowley even disputed the assertion that Manning was being tortured.

Japan’s 8.9 Magnitude Earthquake and Tsunami #prayforJapan

Japan is reeling today from a horrifying natural disaster that hit last night. An earthquake rocked the northern coastal area of Japan, specifically in the Sendai prefecture, only 230 miles from downtown Tokyo. The earthquake measured around 8.8 on the Richter scale, and to put this into context, the Haitian earthquake last year measured 7.0 on the same scale. Japan has also reported a dozen aftershocks as well. In the CNN clip below, it’s so scary to see  the tsunami waves rush over the farmland and small villages just crushing houses and cars. The death toll by the coast is rumored to be at 300 today and rising (hopefully much less than the 150,000 lives lost in the 2004 Asian tsunami). Luckily it seems that most densely populated big cities, like Tokyo, were spared the worst damage (and casualties)…..but if you’ve ever had the chance to visit the small towns in Japan, you know how unique and precious they are. I’m saddened to think of people and delicate architecture and traditions that may be devastated.

But I’m counting my blessings that my cousin’s husband, his father and my family friends are okay so far. They were in the Tokyo subway when this happened and were evacuated. Thankful that Mikey’s cousin and fiance are ok, they planned their wedding for tomorrow in the southern part of Japan. The homie DJ Kastone is safe and sound, he was touring in Osaka (southern Japan) but will likely have to delay his plans to fly to Tokyo. And fortunately, the 20 plus coasts that were on tsunami watch like Hawaii and California weathered their waves.

We have many friends in Japan, and we know our readers do too….our thoughts and prayers are with them and their extended families.