Now
that the Iowa caucuses are over, what do we know about the 2012 presidential
contest that we didn't know before voters in the Hawkeye State took part in the
first major electoral event of the campaign?
The
truth is we don’t know a whole lot more than we did before the caucuses. At
best, the Iowa contest confirmed what we already suspected about Mitt Romney: Despite
his frontrunner status, the former Massachusetts governor has yet to energize
the Republican Party. He won Iowa by a mere eight votes and received just 24.6
percent of the total votes cast. These are not the types of numbers that build
momentum.
Slight
as the victory was, Romney can take some solace in the fact that he emerged as
the winner after having trailed Newt Gingrich in most of the polls leading up
to the caucuses. But Gingrich’s poor showing on Tuesday probably had more to do
with the attack ads launched against him than with increased enthusiasm for
Romney’s candidacy.
The
caucuses also confirmed that the far right wing of the Republican Party will
continue to play a significant role throughout the primary season. Rick
Santorum has little chance of winning the GOP nomination, but the fact that a
candidate with his conservative credentials, operating on a shoestring budget,
managed to come within eight votes of winning Iowa illustrates the strength the
far right has built with GOP voters. In Iowa, Santorum, Gingrich and other
candidates who are more conservative than Romney received 73 percent of the
vote among them. That can’t be comforting news for Romney with his meager 24.6
percent victory.
On
the other side of the spectrum, although Democrats still have their work cut
out for them if President Obama is to win re-election in November, the results
from Iowa contained some encouraging signs. For starters, even though the caucuses
were of little consequence for Obama, Democrats are boasting that 25,000 members
of the party faithful turned out throughout Iowa Tuesday night to rally and
plan for the upcoming campaign.
Of
greater significance for both parties is the ideological gap between Romney and
the more conservative wing of the Republican Party. In the general election, Romney
would be a more formidable candidate than Santorum or Gingrich since his
moderate positions would make him more attractive to independent voters. But to
win the GOP nomination and build enthusiasm that can carry over into the
general election, Romney may have to move further to the right to appease the
more conservative members of his party. While this would help him win the
primary, it could hurt his chances in November.
The
new year, however, is just a few days old, and the road to the White House is a
long one with many twists, turns and detours. The Iowa caucuses are an
important part of the election cycle, but we must be careful not to read too
much into them. Four years ago, Mike Huckabee won Iowa, and John McCain, the
eventual GOP nominee, finished a distant fourth. The New Hampshire primary is
just a few days away, so we may be talking a whole new ballgame next week.
Stay
tuned. It’s sure to be an exciting and entertaining ride.
# # #
Richard
A. Lee, who has more than 30 years of professional experience in journalism,
government and politics, is an assistant professor in the Russell J. Jandoli
School of Journalism and Mass Communication at St. Bonaventure University. Read
more of Rich's columns at richleeonline
and follow him on Twitter @richleeonline.
