Wednesday, June 3, 2009

2009 NBA Finals Preview & Predictions




Andrew Thell, Writer
I’m a little tired of being the guy that doubts this Orlando Magic squad only to see them topple opponent after opponent and exceed expectations. I’m a believer in this team. They’re good. Very good. They’ve earned their trip to the NBA Finals with stellar play throughout the regular season and postseaon. So instead of simply describing how I see them losing this time around, I’ll lay out two scenarios followed by my actual prediction.

The Orlando Magic Topple the Los Angeles Lakers: Mickael Pietrus plays like a true difference maker on both ends, bodying up on Kobe Bryant and frustrating him into ill-advised shots and passes. He also gets hot from outside, forcing Kobe and Ariza to stay honest on him at the perimeter. Meanwhile, Dwight dominates the meek Los Angeles big men, consistently getting Andrew Bynum in foul trouble and forcing the weaker Pau Gasol to expend a bulk of his energy playing man defense. Los Angeles is forced to turn to Josh Powell and DJ Mbenga to play more minutes than they ever wanted to.

This all plays into the Magic’s hands, as so much attention is drawn inside on both offense and defense that LA cannot execute their intricate sets or fluent team play. It leaves Rashard Lewis and Hedo Turkoglu free to roam in the perimeter, to either knock down key shot after key shot or slice to the lane for easy buckets or free throws. Rafer Alston steps up to the big stage, making the defensively challenged and offensively limited Los Angeles points a liability. As the Lakers dare him to shoot night after night he consistently makes them pay. Orlando manages to steal one of the first two games in LA as the Lake Show simply doesn’t show up (again), then holds serve in their three home games, winning in five.

The Los Angeles Lakers Win Their 15th NBA Title: The Lakers come out and play the way we all know they’re capable of. They play like the only team in the NBA to finish in the top five in both offensive and defensive efficiency rating. They execute on offense with deadly efficiency, coming out of the gate poised and aggressive. Their clean execution and multitude of scorers on offense are simply too much for Orlando to handle, as their crisp passing and disciplined approach consistently finds open jumpers on the weak side and the interior offense attacks Dwight Howard’s backside.

Pau Gasol continues to hold his own on the glass, finishing with double-digit rebounds in each Lakers win. Andrew Bynum steps up to the challenge and bodies up on Dwight Howard, making him look like simply an All Star rather than the generational talent he is. On the outside Trevor Ariza is able to stick with Turkogou and Lewis while leading the series in steals and continuing to hit over half of his field-goal attempts, including key open makes from downtown. The Lake Show’s trio of points each bring something to the table, with Derek Fisher hitting timely, open threes, Jordan Farmar simply running the offense when called upon and Shannon Brown attacking the rim in dramatic fashion.

Meanwhile, Kobe stands back like the field general he is, watching it all and stepping up each night with what his team needs — be it 40 points, 10 assists or simply solid perimeter defense.

It’s obviously going to be a little from Column A, a little from Column B. But in the end, superior talent, depth and experience win out.

Prediction: Lakers in 5.

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