Torpedo Hit Confirmed. What Now?

By Forecast International

SEOUL: The international investigation team delving into the sinking of the Korean corvette Cheonan has produced irrefutable evidence that the ship was sunk following a hit by a North Korean heavy torpedo. The torpedo had a warhead from 200-300 kilograms of RDX and produced an under-the-keel explosion at a depth of 6 to 9 meters, roughly 3 meters left of the center of the ship’s gas turbine room. The concussion literally tore the ship apart, killing 46 of the 104 sailors on board the stricken vessel.

The key evidence was the recovery of parts from the torpedo, including a propulsion motor with propellers and a steering section, according to Yoon Duk-yong, co-head of the investigation team. "They perfectly match the schematics of the CHT-02D torpedo included in introductory brochures provided to foreign countries by North Korea for export purposes," he said. The CHT-02D is a heavyweight passive acoustic homing torpedo measuring about 53 centimeters in diameter and weighing 1.7 tons with a net explosive weight of about 250 kilograms. Just to screw the identification down tight, the recovered torpedo wreckage had the North Korean serial number still marked on it.

It appears that the torpedo was fired from a 130-ton Yeono-class midget submarine. A few such submarines and a mother ship supporting them left a North Korean naval base in the West Sea two to three days prior to the attack and returned to their port two to three days after the attack. The South Korean Navy has confirmed that all submarines from neighboring countries were either in or near their respective home bases at the time of the incident.

A good guess at this point is that the midget submarines were spread out across the area patrolled by the Cheonan and one of them found itself in a position to take the shot. It is believed that the submarine in question identified its target at night and mounted the attack at close range. After the attack, the submarine appears to have swiftly moved away from the scene and returned (to its home port) using the same infiltration route that it used to get in.

The question now becomes, what will happen next? North Korea responded to the revelations by issuing a bellicose statement that if anybody tried to institute any sanctions or retaliation over the attack, the North would immediately launch an "all-out war." This may be a bluff, but the North is expected to raise the level of aggression against the South, possibly by firing artillery from its coasts or testing short-range missiles. North Korea might also attempt a second provocation in a concealed manner using its special forces.

South Korea plans to announce countermeasures against North Korea, including taking the issue to the U.N. Security Council, which many believe will accomplish nothing. More forcefully, the South also proposes stopping all inter-Korean economic cooperation and exchange projects except for the joint venture in Gaeseong, resuming frontline propaganda, and prohibiting North Korean vessels from passing South Korean waters.

The fact that the sinking of the Cheonan has been confirmed as a deliberate North Korean attack will have a major impact on the South Korean local elections, now just two weeks away. It is widely viewed to work in favor of President Lee Myung-bak?s Conservative Party in the elections, which will serve as a mid-term test for Lee and remap the political topography ahead of the 2012 presidential vote. Dubbing North Korea?s attack "an unforgivable crime," Chairman Chung Mong-joon of the ruling Grand National Party said, "North Korea has clearly violated our armistice and betrayed our faith. It is time for our nation to unite and work with the international community in coming up with a rightful measure that will show North Korea the weight of what it has done."

Backing these presumptions, recent polls show the number of floating voters has decreased rapidly, with elderly conservative voters increasingly expressing their favoritism toward the ruling party candidates. The fact that many of the ruling party candidates are incumbent district chiefs hoping for a second or third term - such as the case in Seoul, Incheon and Gyeonggi - is another advantageous factor for the GNP.