NBA Finals Odds: Lakers at Celtics, Game 5

by Allen James

Both Kobe and Ray Allen have had some struggles in the Finals. (AP Images)




Well, despite Paul Pierce’s Game 2 proclamation that the Celtics “ain’t coming back to L.A.” the NBA Finals are assured of returning to the West Coast following Boston’s Game 4 victory to even the series at two. The question is whether the Lakers or Celtics are playing for a title when the series is back at the Staples Center for Game 6. Bodog’s NBA odds favor Boston by 2.5 points to take a 3-2 lead in Sunday’s Game 5.



Boston’s bench – mainly Glen Davis and Nate Robinson – was the difference in Game 4, as the Celtics reserves outscored their Laker counterparts 36-18. And Pierce, the 2008 Finals MVP against Los Angeles, finally showed back up after two subpar games with 19 points, six rebounds and five assists. Still, Boston needs to get Ray Allen going. He has missed 14 consecutive three-pointers, and while that didn’t cost Boston in Game 4 it will eventually (and obviously did in Game 3).



Meanwhile, the Lakers have to be concerned with Andrew Bynum, as Boston has dominated the boards when Bynum hasn’t been on the court. Bynum had his injured knee drained again after Game 4, when he was totally inconsequential with two points and three rebounds in 12 minutes. He says he will play tonight, but how effective he will be is another question. That extra day off between Games 4 and 5 should help. A big reason L.A’s bench was so dominated in Game 4 is that its best player, Lamar Odom, is basically playing as a starter with Bynum so limited. The Celtics also seem to have found a Kobe Bryant stopper, as Kobe is 5-of-19 from the field against defensive pest Tony Allen in the series. Bryant is averaging 28.3 points and 6.3 rebounds and 4.5 assists in the series. But he is just 3-for-12 combined in the fourth quarter of the past two games.



So how important is Game 5? In the 2-3-2 format, when teams with home-court advantage at the start of the series have a 3-2 lead in the Finals (i.e. the Lakers), they have taken the series all nine times. In NBA history, when the NBA Finals is tied at 2, the Game 5 winner goes on to win the series 76 percent of the time. Only two teams since 1985 have won Game 5 (when tied 2-2) and then lost the series.